The Proceeding Jakarta Geopolitical Forum, organized by LEMHANNAS RI, focuses on addressing the critical challenges of geo-maritime resilience in the Indo-Pacific region. This forum brings together geopolitical experts, policymakers, and academics to discuss maritime security, regional cooperation, and solutions to environmental and economic issues in this strategic region. Participants in the forum discussed key topics such as maritime competition between nations, security threats like transnational crime and environmental degradation, and the importance of preserving marine ecosystems. The discussions also emphasized the need for international collaboration to secure trade routes and develop a sustainable maritime economy. This proceeding presents the outcomes of those discussions, offering actionable recommendations for future maritime policies. It serves as a reference for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders interested in maritime security and development in the Indo-Pacific region.
Lembaga Ketahanan Nasional Republik Indonesia (LEMHANNAS RI)
Strengthening Multilateralism amid Strategic Protectionism and Global Technology Competition: A Middle Power Perspective
Global geopolitical fragmentation has reduced the effectiveness of multilateral institutions while shifting international competition beyond military and political dimensions toward strategic protectionism and technological rivalry. This paper examines how middle powers respond to these transformations in strengthening multilateralism. A qualitative approach using policy discourse analysis was applied to the official proceedings of the Jakarta Geopolitical Forum (JGF) X/2026, comprising the Opening Remarks, Keynote Address, ten invited presentations, the Conference Summary, and supporting academic literature and international policy documents. The analysis integrates Middle Power Theory, Economic Statecraft, and Technology Competition as complementary analytical frameworks. The findings indicate that middle powers strengthen multilateralism through issue-based coalitions, adaptive diplomacy, and credible leadership. Strategic protectionism has expanded beyond trade policy to encompass financial systems, critical minerals, sustainable industrial policies, and global supply chains, while technological competition increasingly depends on human capital, digital infrastructure, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence governance. This paper contributes an integrated conceptual framework demonstrating that diplomacy, strategic economic instruments, and technological capabilities are mutually reinforcing dimensions that enable middle powers, particularly Indonesia, to strengthen multilateralism and enhance their role as rule shapers amid global geopolitical fragmentation
Copyright (c) 2026 Wiken Dwi Sebtianing (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Closing Remarks at the Jakarta Geopolitical Forum X/2026: Strengthening Multilateralism: Survival Amid Global Turbulence and a Fragmented World
The 10th Jakarta Geopolitical Forum (JGF X) 2026 provided an important platform for strategic dialogue, knowledge exchange, and policy deliberation under the theme Strengthening Multilateralism: Survival Amid Global Turbulence and a Fragmented World. The active participation of keynote speakers, special remarks speakers, plenary speakers, moderators, policymakers, diplomats, academics, researchers, industry representatives, media partners, and participants enriched the discussions and reinforced the strategic relevance of the forum. Their collective contributions enhanced the substantive value of the forum while strengthening dialogue on multilateral cooperation in an increasingly fragmented international environment. The forum reaffirmed that multilateralism remains a strategic necessity rather than merely an aspirational principle. For small and middle powers, including Indonesia, effective multilateral cooperation provides an essential foundation for safeguarding sovereignty, maintaining predictability, promoting equitable partnerships, and preserving international peace amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. The first plenary session highlighted that the weakening of multilateralism reflects not only institutional shortcomings but also shifting power relations, strategic ambiguity, and the erosion of respect for international norms. Accordingly, middle powers should continue strengthening rules-based cooperation through regional partnerships, legal innovation, and consistent diplomacy. The three plenary sessions collectively highlighted the multidimensional nature of contemporary geopolitical challenges. The second plenary session demonstrated that economic policy has become inseparable from national security, with tariffs, sanctions, critical minerals, green industrial policy, currency competition, and supply-chain reconfiguration increasingly functioning as strategic instruments that require adaptive, resilient, and pragmatic policy responses. The third plenary session further emphasised that technological competition, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and the future of work will significantly shape national resilience. The discussions also reaffirmed that the demographic dividend can only become a strategic advantage when supported by sustained investment in human capital development, digital skills, data governance, ethical artificial intelligence, and secure critical infrastructure. The forum further agreed that its deliberations should extend beyond academic exchange and generate practical policy contributions. The proceedings, the Forum Pulse, and the substantive recommendations developed through the forum will provide strategic inputs for national decision-makers while supporting Indonesia's national resilience and its constructive contribution to regional and global governance. These outputs are expected to serve as practical references for government institutions, academia, industry, think tanks, and international partners in responding to the evolving geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geotechnological landscape. The discussions also produced a shared understanding that middle powers should remain active contributors rather than passive observers within an increasingly fragmented international system. Indonesia's independent and active foreign policy continues to provide an appropriate framework for strengthening strategic partnerships, maintaining balanced international relations, safeguarding national interests, and contributing to a peaceful, inclusive, and rules-based international order. Within this context, strengthening resilience requires simultaneous progress at the national, regional, and global levels through strong institutions, high-quality human resources, economic competitiveness, energy security, digital readiness, ASEAN cohesion, practical regional cooperation, revitalised multilateralism, and continued respect for international law. Finally, the forum reaffirmed that trade diversification, green economic transformation, resilient supply chains, digital sovereignty, and cybersecurity should ultimately contribute to safeguarding Indonesia's sovereignty, advancing national prosperity, and supporting a more stable, peaceful, and sustainable international order. The forum concluded with the shared aspiration that the partnerships, dialogue, and ideas developed throughout the discussions will continue to evolve into concrete cooperation for Indonesia, the region, and the wider international community.
Copyright (c) 2026 T.B. Ace Hasan Syadzily (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Conference Summary at the Jakarta Geopolitical Forum X/2026: Strengthening Multilateralism: Survival Amid Global Turbulence and a Fragmented World
Bismillahirrahmanirrahim. Assalamu'alaikum warahmatullahi wabarakatuh. May peace and blessings be upon us. Om Swastiastu, Namo Buddhaya, Salam Kebajikan. The Honourable Governor of the National Resilience Institute of the Republic of Indonesia, Dr. H. TB Ace Hasan Syadzily; The Honourable Vice Governor of the National Resilience Institute of the Republic of Indonesia; Excellencies; distinguished moderators, speakers, and participants, both here in the conference hall and joining us online; ladies and gentlemen. We have now reached the conclusion of the forum, and it is my honour to present a summary of the substantive discussions of the 10th Jakarta Geopolitical Forum 2026. Under the theme, "Strengthening Multilateralism: Survival Amid Global Turbulence and a Fragmented World," a common question emerged throughout every session: Who will write the next set of global rules, and who will build the capability to live by them? Writing the rules is one challenge; possessing the infrastructure, economic strength, institutional resilience, and technological capability to survive and prosper under those rules is another. This morning, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia, His Excellency Sugiono, opened our discussions by asking whether multilateralism can still deliver. His answer was clear: yes-but not on autopilot. The remedy for imperfect multilateralism is not less multilateralism, but better multilateralism. He reaffirmed Indonesia's Bebas Aktif foreign policy as an approach that expands strategic space rather than forcing countries to choose between competing blocs. That strategic space must ultimately be anchored in national capability, because sovereignty is meaningful only when supported by resilience and capacity. Our first plenary session examined the future of multilateralism in an increasingly multipolar world. Professor Nick Bisley reminded us that middle powers cannot reshape the international order through grand strategic designs. Instead, they must pursue pragmatic, issue-based coalitions built upon shared interests, practical leadership, and tangible outcomes, as demonstrated by countries that sustained the Comprehensive and Progressive The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), sustained following the withdrawal of the United States, demonstrates the continuing relevance of this form of cooperation in areas including maritime security, domestic resilience, and economic diversification. Professor Georgy Toloraya presented a perspective in which emerging platforms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation complement rather than replace the United Nations. In his view, multipolarity should not be interpreted as disorder, but as a search for a new international equilibrium. He also proposed stronger engagement between ASEAN and Eurasian institutions through economic cooperation, energy collaboration, civilian nuclear development, and cooperation on ethical frameworks for artificial intelligence. Professor Hikmahanto Juwana reminded us that international law continues to face significant limitations whenever major powers choose to disregard established legal decisions. Nevertheless, he emphasised that Indonesia should remain committed to preventing escalation, maintaining dialogue wherever cooperation remains possible, and consistently implementing its Bebas Aktif foreign policy with many friends and no enemies. Although each speaker approached the issue from different perspectives, the session ultimately converged on a shared conclusion: the international order is under considerable pressure, and middle powers must respond through pragmatic cooperation, sustained diplomacy, and strengthened multilateral engagement rather than confrontation.
Copyright (c) 2026 Ipung Purwadi (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Ethics and Responsibility in the Governance of Artificial Intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming business, government, and society at a pace that exceeds the development of governance frameworks. This article presents an academic adaptation of Patrick Rudolf Dannacher's presentation at the 10th Jakarta Geopolitical Forum 2026, examining Indonesia's strategic position in the evolving global AI landscape. The presentation argued that Indonesia should become a rule shaper rather than a rule taker by developing governance frameworks that reflect national and regional priorities instead of relying solely on external regulatory models. Responsible AI requires more than ethical principles; it depends on capable institutions, effective implementation, qualified professionals, and credible regulatory mechanisms. Key challenges identified include fragmented governance, implementation gaps, and operational risks associated with large language models, including prompt injection, hallucination, and data leakage. The presentation further emphasised the importance of independent AI assurance, certification systems, and institutional readiness to support responsible AI adoption across strategic sectors. Building digital talent and governance capability was presented as the essential foundation for reducing implementation gaps and strengthening long-term competitiveness. The presentation concluded that developing national capability while adapting international best practices provides the most appropriate pathway for enabling Indonesia to contribute to the future development of AI governance.
Copyright (c) 2026 Patrick Rudolf Dannacher (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Future Digital Resilience in Safeguarding Critical Infrastructure and Securing Digital Economy
Accelerating digital transformation, geopolitical fragmentation, and advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing have elevated cybersecurity from a technical issue to a strategic imperative for protecting national infrastructure. This paper examines how middle powers can strengthen resilience amid growing dependence on interconnected digital ecosystems and increasingly sophisticated cyber threats. It argues that sustainable capability is shaped by two structural realities: the substantial investment required to develop advanced digital infrastructure and the practical limitations that prevent any country from independently mastering every critical technology. Consequently, infrastructure-agnostic solutions supported by trusted international partnerships become essential for ensuring operational continuity and security. Drawing on Thales' experience in post-quantum cryptography, sovereign cloud computing, digital identity, and trustworthy artificial intelligence, the paper highlights practical approaches to strengthening sovereign capabilities through technology transfer, local industrial participation, and knowledge development. Indonesia is presented as an example of how long-term collaboration can reinforce cybersecurity, protect critical infrastructure, and support sustainable digital transformation. The paper concludes that credible resilience depends on combining international cooperation with sustained investment in domestic expertise and innovation.
Copyright (c) 2026 Jean-Noël Bonnieu (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Technological Disruption and the Future of Labour Market
This paper discusses the transition from industrial automation towards autonomous operations amid global fragmentation, strategic protectionism, cybersecurity challenges, digital sovereignty, and changing supply chains. The presentation explains how software-defined automation, artificial intelligence, digital twin technology, and integrated robotics contribute to safer operations, improved decision-making, higher productivity, and greater operational resilience across manufacturing, mining, oil and gas, power generation, logistics, and related industries. It further highlights the progressive evolution from pre-digital operations to autonomous plants, demonstrating that technological transformation should advance together with workforce transformation. Findings presented from the 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report indicate that intelligent systems are intended to augment human capabilities rather than replace them, while organisations increasingly invest in workforce reskilling and capability development. For Indonesia, responsible automation provides opportunities to expand industrial capacity, attract investment, improve competitiveness, and create higher-quality employment. The presentation concludes that technological innovation and workforce development should progress simultaneously to strengthen sustainable industrial growth
Copyright (c) 2026 Adi Darmadi (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Special Remarks Cyber Power and Global Competition: How Small and Middle Powers Can Leverage Digital Economic Transformation
Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global economic and geopolitical competition as a general-purpose technology whose strategic value depends not only on innovation but also on its widespread application across the real economy. Lasting technological leadership requires human capital, engineering capability, digital infrastructure, and institutional readiness that enable AI adoption across manufacturing, healthcare, education, logistics, and public services. Historical experience demonstrates that competitive advantage depends on diffusing technological innovation throughout productive sectors rather than introducing breakthroughs alone. Strategic rivalry between the United States and China has intensified competition in semiconductors, computing technologies, export controls, and critical mineral supply chains, extending beyond frontier innovation to broader industrial ecosystems and computing capacity. These developments also create opportunities for small and middle powers to strengthen their strategic relevance by leveraging national comparative advantages. Indonesia possesses important strategic assets to support its role in the digital economy. The presentation introduced digital statecraft as the strategic management of digital ecosystems to advance national objectives through economic and technological instruments. Four complementary sources of national leverage were identified: resource power, market power, demographic power, and compute power. Indonesia's reserves of nickel, cobalt, copper, bauxite, and silica, combined with its large digital economy and young population, provide significant advantages that should be supported by stronger computing capability, advanced digital talent, and industrial capacity to generate greater value beyond resource extraction. Critical minerals were presented as Indonesia's principal strategic advantage in the emerging AI economy. Their importance extends beyond commodity production to supporting batteries, semiconductors, data centres, and AI infrastructure, while creating opportunities to secure technology transfer, advanced manufacturing partnerships, and deeper participation in global technology value chains. The presentation further identified data sovereignty as the foundation connecting all dimensions of digital statecraft. As AI increasingly depends on data generated across economic and public activities, governance should strengthen domestic capability, support technology transfer, and ensure that AI systems reflect Indonesia's language, legal framework, and national priorities while maintaining international cooperation. Indonesia's digital transformation should advance through two complementary strategies: leveraging critical minerals to expand access to computing technologies, semiconductor capability, manufacturing partnerships, and advanced processing, while strengthening sovereign computing capacity through investment in data centres, secure cloud infrastructure, research institutions, semiconductor capability, and highly skilled digital talent. These priorities are reinforced through chip diplomacy, reliable energy infrastructure, AI and semiconductor talent development, stronger data sovereignty, and AI systems designed to address Indonesia's national context. The presentation concluded that long-term technological competitiveness depends on sustained political commitment, institutional continuity, and investment in strategic capability. By integrating critical minerals, digital markets, demographic advantages, computing capacity, and institutional strength, Indonesia can reinforce its position as an indispensable technological partner while enhancing national resilience and competitiveness in an increasingly contested digital environment.
Copyright (c) 2026 Nezar Patria (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Reconfiguring Regional Supply Chains and Logistics: Diversification, Intra-Regional Trade, and Economic Resilience
This paper examines Indonesia's strategic position within global mineral supply chains amid increasing geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain disruption. The presentation discusses downstream industrialisation, logistics, energy security, investment certainty, and technology transfer as key elements supporting economic resilience. It argues that Indonesia's abundant natural resources provide a strong foundation for long-term industrial development, provided they are supported by predictable regulations, competitive investment policies, and pragmatic government action. The presentation concludes that regulatory certainty, rather than resource availability, represents one of the most important determinants of Indonesia's ability to strengthen supply chain resilience and achieve its long-term development objectives.
Copyright (c) 2026 Ben Lawson (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Advancing a Sustainable Green Economy: Cooperation, Strategic Resources, and the Future of Industrial Transformation
This paper discusses Indonesia’s strategic position in the global transition towards a sustainable green economy, particularly through its substantial critical mineral resources and nickel downstreaming policy. Indonesia holds a significant share of global nickel reserves and possesses other critical minerals required for clean technology development. The presentation argues that responsible downstreaming can increase domestic value creation, support economic transformation, and contribute to Indonesia’s long-term development targets. Nevertheless, green industrial policies may produce exclusionary effects when international standards, trade measures, and regulatory requirements restrict market access or disregard the domestic frameworks of producer countries. Cooperative green industrial measures should therefore expand clean technology capacity, accelerate industrial decarbonisation, distribute value fairly across supply chains, and recognise equivalent domestic regulations. The presentation proposes three principles for sustainable industrial standards: mutual recognition between domestic and international frameworks, support for technology transfer, investment, capacity development, and skills, and appropriate market recognition for responsibly produced goods. It concludes that producers, consumers, standard-setting bodies, and other relevant stakeholders should jointly formulate interoperable rules rather than allow any single bloc to determine global standards unilaterally.
Copyright (c) 2026 Arief Wijaya (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Currency Competition in Transition: De-dollarisation, Gold, Digital Money, and the Future of Global Trade and Regional Cooperation
This paper discusses the growing influence of geopolitical developments on the international financial and monetary system, with particular emphasis on the changing role of gold as a reserve asset. The presentation explains current developments in global gold demand and supply, the increasing importance of emerging markets, and the sustained rise in central bank gold purchases since 2022 following heightened geopolitical tensions. It further examines how central banks are strengthening reserve diversification by increasing gold holdings, adjusting reserve storage strategies, and gradually reducing dependence on traditional reserve assets while maintaining the continued importance of the US dollar. Attention is given to Indonesia's strategic position as one of the world's leading gold producers and to opportunities for strengthening the domestic gold ecosystem through bullion banking and financial market development. The presentation also discusses the growing role of digital assets, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins within the international financial system. It concludes that geopolitical uncertainty is accelerating reserve diversification, with gold increasingly supporting financial resilience while de-dollarisation remains a gradual rather than abrupt process.
Copyright (c) 2026 Shaokai Fan (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Special Remarks Rebalancing Power through Trade: Tariffs and Strategic Competition in an Era of Economic Slowdown
International trade is increasingly shaped by tariffs, export controls, sanctions, and strategic competition, transforming trade from a mechanism of market access into an instrument closely linked to national security, technological leadership, industrial policy, and geopolitical influence. As supply chains are reconfigured and investment decisions become more complex, Indonesia maintains that trade should remain a bridge rather than a battlefield, promoting stability, prosperity, and international cooperation amid growing global fragmentation. Indonesia's response combines strategic flexibility, diversified partnerships, and open economic engagement. ASEAN centrality remains the foundation of regional integration, while Indonesia strengthens South–South cooperation through BRICS and continues active engagement with the OECD, G20, APEC, and the World Trade Organization. At the domestic level, competitiveness is reinforced through industrial upgrading, downstream value addition, digital transformation, and resilient supply chains to reduce excessive dependence on any single market, technology, or supply chain while preserving Indonesia's role as an open and trusted trading partner. The presentation emphasised that multilateral economic institutions remain essential but require reform to reflect contemporary realities. Indonesia therefore supports strengthening the WTO dispute settlement system, updating trade rules for the digital economy, improving IMF governance, and expanding the World Bank's capacity to support infrastructure, climate transition, food security, and human capital development. Reform was presented as fundamental to maintaining institutional legitimacy, trust, and effective multilateral cooperation. Growing reliance on tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and investment restrictions has increased uncertainty for economies integrated into global value chains. Indonesia therefore builds resilience by diversifying export markets and investment partners, expanding market access through trade agreements, and investing in advanced technologies, digital infrastructure, green industries, and human capital. Supported by around twenty trade agreements covering more than sixty per cent of Indonesia's international trade, this strategy also promotes business cooperation, technology and knowledge transfer, stronger people-to-people relations, and the long-term vision of Golden Indonesia 2045. Constructive engagement remains central to Indonesia's economic diplomacy. Indonesia's experience in responding to international trade investigations, including the Section 301 process, demonstrates the importance of evidence-based dialogue, bilateral consultation, and pragmatic negotiation. A pentahelix approach involving government, business, academia, civil society, and the media was presented as essential for strengthening policy coordination, negotiating capacity, and public understanding while reinforcing Indonesia's position in international trade negotiations. The presentation concluded that the future of international trade will be determined not only by tariffs or market access but also by trust among governments, businesses, and international institutions. Through diversification, inclusive reform, and collaborative diplomacy, Indonesia is committed to strengthening an open, fair, predictable, and rules-based multilateral trading system.
Copyright (c) 2026 Dyah Roro Esti Widya Putri (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
From Fragility to Resilience: Revitalising International Legal Order in an Era of Strategic Ambiguity
This paper examines the practical role of international law in addressing contemporary geopolitical disputes from the perspective of a middle power. It argues that Indonesia's successful diplomatic achievement in securing international recognition of the archipelagic state principle under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea cannot be directly replicated because today's strategic environment is fundamentally different. While international law continues to provide an essential normative framework for interstate relations, its effectiveness becomes increasingly constrained when disputes involve national security and competing geopolitical interests. The discussion highlights that opposing parties frequently invoke different legal provisions to justify their respective actions, whereas no authoritative enforcement mechanism exists to resolve competing interpretations conclusively. Despite these limitations, Indonesia continues to possess an important diplomatic role through practical initiatives that strengthen confidence, facilitate dialogue, and support peaceful negotiation. The discussion concludes that international law and diplomacy should operate as complementary instruments for managing strategic disputes, enabling middle powers to contribute constructively to international peace while recognising the political realities of an increasingly complex international order.
Copyright (c) 2026 Hikmahanto Juwana (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Navigating Peace and Stability in The Dominance of Major Global Powers in Interstate Competition
This conference paper presents an academic adaptation of Professor Georgy Toloraya's presentation at the Jakarta Geopolitical Forum X, examining the implications of an emerging multipolar international order through the concept of Comparative Power. The presentation argues that conventional measures of state power based primarily on economic or military capabilities are insufficient to explain the increasingly complex distribution of influence in contemporary international relations. Instead, a broader comparative framework is introduced, incorporating historical, institutional, political, cultural, technological, and strategic dimensions to classify states according to their functional roles within the international system. The presentation further examines Russia's strategic position as a sub-superpower, the significance of the Russia-China partnership, the complementary role of BRICS+, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the Eurasian Economic Union alongside the United Nations, and the growing importance of Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, in supporting a more inclusive multipolar order. Practical opportunities for cooperation are identified in energy security, food security, defence technology, peaceful nuclear applications, digital innovation, education, and multilateral dialogue. The presentation concludes that multipolarity represents an emerging equilibrium that should be strengthened through inclusive cooperation, strategic partnerships, and pragmatic multilateral engagement.
Copyright (c) 2026 Georgy Toloraya (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Beyond Great Powers: Middle Powers and the Future of Multilateral Cooperation
This conference paper presents an academic adaptation of Professor Nick Bisley's presentation at the Jakarta Geopolitical Forum X, examining the evolving role of middle powers in sustaining multilateral cooperation amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty. The presentation explains that the post-Cold War environment, characterised by strategic stability, revitalised multilateralism, and economic openness, has shifted towards intensified great-power competition, institutional fragmentation, and a more politicised global economy. In response, middle powers increasingly rely on both multilateral and minilateral cooperation, although arrangements including the Quad and AUKUS have yet to demonstrate consistent effectiveness. The presentation further argues that effective cooperation depends on clearly defined shared interests, sustained leadership, and tangible outcomes rather than the expansion of institutional mechanisms. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) demonstrates the capacity of middle powers to achieve meaningful cooperation through pragmatic leadership and long-term commitment. The presentation concludes by identifying maritime security, domestic security infrastructure, and economic resilience as practical priorities through which middle powers can strengthen international cooperation and contribute to regional and global stability despite their structural limitations.
Copyright (c) 2026 Nick Bisley (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Keynote Address Strengthening Multilateralism: Survival Amid Global Turbulence and a Fragmented World
The international system is experiencing growing pressures arising from geopolitical rivalry, armed conflicts, economic protectionism, climate change, and rapid technological transformation. These interconnected developments have weakened confidence in multilateral institutions while exposing inconsistencies in the implementation of international law. The increasing complexity of transnational challenges demonstrates that multilateral cooperation remains indispensable, although international institutions require reform to become more representative, adaptive, and capable of responding effectively to evolving global realities. Indonesia continues to uphold its Bebas Aktif foreign policy as the fundamental framework guiding its international engagement. This principle does not represent neutrality or passive diplomacy but reflects Indonesia's sovereign authority to determine its own foreign policy while actively contributing to international peace, safeguarding national sovereignty, promoting national prosperity, and maintaining constructive relations with all partners without joining exclusive geopolitical blocs. Expanding strategic options while preserving national interests therefore remains the central orientation of Indonesia's diplomacy. Strengthening multilateralism requires improving existing international institutions rather than abandoning them. Indonesia consequently supports initiatives to enhance the effectiveness, inclusiveness, transparency, and accountability of global governance through the UN80 Initiative, reform of the United Nations Security Council, and stronger representation of developing countries in international decision making. These reforms are expected to reinforce collective responses to increasingly interconnected global challenges while preserving a rules-based international order. Indonesia also continues to expand its strategic engagement through active participation in ASEAN, the G20, BRICS, the D-8, and the OECD accession process. These complementary engagements broaden Indonesia's diplomatic space, strengthen international partnerships, and preserve strategic flexibility without shifting from one geopolitical bloc to another. This approach reflects the practical implementation of the Bebas Aktif principle in navigating an increasingly dynamic international environment. Strong diplomacy depends upon strong national resilience. Food security, energy security, industrial downstreaming, technological capability, human capital development, economic governance, and trade diversification constitute mutually reinforcing priorities supporting Indonesia's long-term national transformation. Strengthening these domestic foundations enhances Indonesia's capacity to protect national interests while contributing to regional stability, sustainable development, and international cooperation. Multilateralism therefore remains indispensable despite increasing global fragmentation. Maintaining an effective international order requires continuous institutional reform to ensure that global governance remains relevant, inclusive, and responsive to contemporary challenges. Through the integration of comprehensive national resilience and the Bebas Aktif foreign policy, Indonesia will continue to preserve its strategic autonomy, expand international cooperation, and contribute to a peaceful, stable, and rules-based international order
Copyright (c) 2026 H. E. Sugiono (Author) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
Opening Remarks Strengthening Multilateralism: Survival Amid Global Turbulence and a Fragmented World
With gratitude, I welcome the holding of the Jakarta Geopolitical Forum X 2026, which carries the theme Strengthening Multilateralism: Survival Amid Global Turbulence and a Fragmented World. This forum serves as an important platform for thinkers, practitioners, and world leaders to discuss increasingly complex geopolitical challenges, as well as to find joint solutions in strengthening multilateralism. Today, the world faces global turbulence marked by political fragmentation, economic rivalry, and security uncertainty. In such a situation, multilateralism is not just a choice, but an urgent necessity to ensure the continuity of peace, stability, and human welfare. Indonesia, through Lemhannas RI, is committed to continuing to play an active role in promoting inclusive, fair, and sustainable international cooperation. This forum is expected to enrich strategic perspectives, strengthen international networks, and generate innovative ideas that are relevant to global dynamics. I believe that through open dialogue and constructive collaboration, we can find a way out of fragmentation towards a more harmonious world order. Finally, I would like to express my appreciation to the team who has contributed to the organization of this forum. Hopefully, the Proceeding of the Jakarta Geopolitical Forum X 2026 will become an important reference towards the milestone in strengthening multilateralism amid the world's turbulence.
Copyright (c) 2026 Author https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
CLOSING REMARKS OF THE GOVERNOR OF THE NATIONAL RESILIENCE INSTITUTE OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA AT THE JAKARTA GEOPOLITICAL FORUM IX 2025:
Closing Remarks The Jakarta Geopolitical Forum IX 2025 has served as a strategic platform for active participation and meaningful exchange, where contributions from participants have greatly enriched the discussions and added significant value to the success of this year’s event (1,2). Over the course of two days, experts, practitioners, and policymakers have shared a wide range of perspectives through presentations and in-depth discussions under the central theme of Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Energy Security. Each session provided valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities faced by Indonesia and the global community in ensuring energy security and resilience amidst increasingly complex dynamics of global economic fragmentation. The discussions covered diverse topics, that are the geopolitical and geoeconomic topics influencing energy security, the urgency of renewable energy diversification, the importance of comprehensive energy governance, and the critical role of technological innovation and international cooperation. These inputs are highly relevant in shaping effective policies for global energy security. The outcomes and recommendations of this forum are expected to serve as strategic references for policymakers, academics, and industry actors in navigating ongoing global developments (1,2). The recommendations also provide a strong foundation for stakeholders in formulating appropriate strategies to secure energy sovereignty and safeguard energy resilience. Energy security, as emphasized, is not only a matter of energy availability but also reflects the dignity and sovereignty of a nation. Despite existing limitations, this forum remains committed to promoting independence and the downstream development of natural resources. The deliberations also reached consensus on the urgent need for the global community to adapt through energy transition toward renewable sources, recognizing the importance as a shared responsibility. Indonesia’s downstreaming policies and strategies, as implemented by the government, were highlighted as a key response to the geopolitical dynamics impacting the energy sector (1,2). The measures require strong and collective support, as they not only strengthen national energy security but also enhance long-term welfare. With sustained commitment, Indonesia has the potential to emerge as a leading actor in the global energy transition.
Copyright (c) 2025 Author https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0
SUSTAINABLE STRATEGIES IN ENERGY RESILIENCE AND DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT: DOWNSTREAMING AND SUSTAINABILITY ARE A MUST
The 9th Jakarta Geopolitical Forum 2025 focused on “Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Energy Resilience.” The discussions underscored the urgent requirement to balance industrial growth, environmental sustainability, and economic resilience amid global trade tensions, decarbonization challenges, and the renewable energy transition. At national level, Indonesia faces structural disparities as archipelagic nation. The industrial activity concentrated in Java while Eastern Indonesia underdeveloped. The study use the New Structural Economics framework, the Environmental Social Governance principles (ESG), and the national interest concept (Wawasan Nusantara). Empirical studies show that Indonesia’s government has banned raw material exports, progress in building smelters and bioenergy industries, while cases of similar policy from China and Malaysia demonstrate both opportunities and constraints in advancing domestic value addition. The study found that downstreaming, renewable energy initiatives, and multi-stakeholder collaboration is strategic to strengthen competitiveness, reduce external vulnerabilities, and expand growth beyond Java. By embedding national resilience and archipelagic integrity into industrial and energy strategies, Indonesia positions itself as a regional leader in shaping equitable energy transitions. The study concludes that consistent regulation, advanced technology, skilled workers, and cooperation with other countries are for achieving resilience, inclusivity, and sustainability in fragmented global order.
ADAPTIVE CITIES IN A FRAGMENTED WORLD: STRATEGIES FOR ENERGY AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
Urbanization has placed cities as the core of global transformation, as economic activity, energy use, and climate risk become concentrated. Cities produce more than 80% of global GDP and nearly 90% of private-sector jobs, and over 70% of greenhouse gas emissions and face rising exposure to extreme weather events. Rapid urban expansion in Southeast Asia undermines issues of fossil fuel dependence, infrastructure inadequacy and climate vulnerability, further highlighting the importance of resilience. This study applies qualitative content analysis to analyse policy frames, case studies and adaptation responses with a focus on two exemplar cities, Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. The results indicate that Ho Chi Minh City can be resilient by involving economics scale, private sector participation, and clean energy projects, and Hanoi highlights governance, planning, and institutional development. Comparative analysis highlights complementary pathways of adaptation across ASEAN, ranging of integrated urban planning, decarbonized mobility, smart infrastructure, and public-private-people partnerships. At the regional level, ASEAN supports resilience through cooperative platforms, yet further cross-border innovation and investment in clean technology remain critical. The study concludes that adaptive cities provide a foundation for both energy security and sustainable economic resilience in an increasingly fragmented world.
GLOBAL CITIES ADAPTIVE STRATEGY AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
Rapid urbanization and climate change are changing the conditions for sustainable development, which poses critical challenges for energy security and economic resilience. China and Indonesia have higher ratios of urban populations compared to the rest of the world. Cities are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events, shifting energy demands and infrastructure stress. This research uses a qualitative case study methodology to examine adaptive strategies for urban environments within the framework of energy transformation and ecological sustainability. The study uses theoretical approaches of sustainable development, energy security and resilience, drawing on empirical evidence drawn from China, Indonesia, and individual cities globally. The findings indicate that transformation to renewable energy reduces the risk of climate change and energy and generates jobs. The adaptation plans of city agencies should incorporate climate resiliency, new technology and inclusive planning. China’s industrial transformation and renewable energy leadership provide insights for emerging economies, including Indonesia, in how to confer urban resilience and economic benefits in the race for the global energy transition.
ENERGY SECURITY AND THE ENERGY TRANSITION
Geopolitical instability and worldwide conflicts impact the gas and oil market, triggering fluctuations in prices of natural gas, coal, and oil. These disturbances highlight the fragile nature of traditional energy systems and demonstrate the strategic relevance of renewable energy as the sturdy alternative. This paper draws on a qualitative content analysis of policy documents, institutional agendas, and expert narratives in Australia and Indonesia to shows the consequences of renewable integration on energy security. The results indicate that Australia’s accelerated transition to renewables, with the aid of large-scale battery deployment, enhances economic resilience and tackles grid stability problems. New case studies from South Australia demonstrate that batteries are keeping the power on and integrating renewables more effectively. Comparison with Indonesia reveals common challenges of coal reliance and decentralised grids, as well as opportunities for cooperation through the Australia-Indonesia Climate Infrastructure Partnership. Findings underscore the importance of supply chain diversification, renewable adoption, and international collaboration for achieving sustainable, affordable, and secure energy systems in a world of geopolitical and climate insecurity.
JAKARTA ADAPTIVE STRATEGY FOR ENHANCING ENERGY AND ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, has contributed 16.71% to the gross domestic product of Indonesia in 2024 while hosting to millions of residents and daily commuters. With the impressive urban economy and human capital resource, the city is confronted with looming problems of flooding, the effects of climate change, poverty and restricted energy usage. This study use qualitative content analysis to examine the sustainability strategy, energy policy and spatial plan of Jakarta, this article. The result reveals that Jakarta has placed the development agenda to a align with the international climate commitment through the RUED 2023-2050 by focusing on promotion of renewable energy, conservation and low carbon development. Programs such as Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), electro mobility for public transport, mangrove conservation and restoration, and increased green space reflect examples of good efforts towards sustainability practices in the urban context. But the adoption of renewable energy is remain low, at only 0.66% of the energy mix, and has been stymied by technical, behavioural and infrastructural obstacles. The study concluded that achieving Jakarta’s vision to be within the top 20 global cities in 2045 requires scaling renewable energy, increasing institutional capacity, and enhance public participation, while also maintain the balance between economic growth and the sustainability of the environment.
POWERING INDONESIA’S GREEN REVOLUTION: LEADING THE CHARGE IN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS
Nickel is a key raw material for both the stainless-steel industry and the fast-growing electric-vehicle (EV) battery sector. As the world’s largest nickel producer, Indonesia is crucial in ensuring supply security and has the potential in promote the nation’s downstream industrialization. This paper uses PT Vale Indonesia as a case study to discuss how competitiveness and sustainability can be embedded into nickel production. Drawing on qualitative content analysis of corporate reports, government papers, institutional reports, and academic scholarship, the study investigates operations strategy, ESG performance metrics, and technological developments in downstream processing. Results shows PT Vale Indonesia is able to be cost efficient as well as to perform well in ESG by adopting the hydropower integration, huge land reclamation and by responsibly managing the concession areas. The company’s strategic partnership with its global partners has further provided the scalability for it to increase its capacity in accordance with the national down streaming policy of Indonesia. In the end, the study finds that competitive and sustainable ambitions are compatible, placing Indonesia as a major supplier of responsibly sourced nickel to the world energy transition.
Global growth over the past 50 years was underpinned by openness in trade, investment and skills. The digitalisation and the transition to renewable energy are the next phases. This paper examines the dynamics in the process of renewable energy in ASEAN in the context of changing global economic governance. The study is based on qualitative content analysis of policy narratives, industrial strategies, and regional cooperation initiatives that condition energy transitions. According to the findings, ASEAN’s renewable energy direction has four primary objectives, that are to enhance energy security, to restructure industrial supply chains, to foster regional cooperation, and, to empower ASEAN with more agency in global forums. In the real world, there are opportunities as well as challenges. Asean has potential as the region is rich in renewable resources and already established initiatives, for example the Asean Power Grid and green finance facilities. But the region remain lagging from the world average in the use of renewable energy, with most of the energy demand met by fossil fuels. National and local-level commitments are vital in driving the use of renewable energy, with the example of the district-level industrial strategies in China providing a case in point. The study shows that renewable energy not only contributes to a cleaner environment but is also imperative to ASEAN’s continued long-term growth and ability to compete globally in political and economic matters.
GEOPOLITICS, MARKET CONTESTABILITY, AND INDONESIA’S STRATEGIC POSITION IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION
Energy markets around the world are undergoing major shifts, driven by climate pressures, geopolitical competition, and rapid technological change. Tensions between the United States and Iran have driven up oil prices recently, underscoring how closely politics and market forces and economic stability are connected. Using a content analysis of qualitative data, the study analyses the strategic position of the most populous Muslim-majority state, Indonesia, in the changing world’s energy scene using game theory and contestable market theory. The results indicate that high oil prices constitute an impetus towards renewables, but also that revenues from fossil-fuel extraction are an important aspect of financing the transition. Meanwhile, the battle between the United States and China over semiconductor supply chains and renewable technologies has heightened the search for strategic partners. Indonesia is in a strong position with the nations geothermal, nickel, and geopolitical factors. But the country is still using and losing a great deal of energy, and has some big challenges to overcome, including regulatory complexity, technological readiness and market uncertainty. In the end, Indonesia’s success will rely on the nation’s ability to adapt to a new wave of coalition shifts, leverage natural advantage, and develop coordinated policies that maintain quotas for its reliance on fossil fuels alongside the ambitious expansion of renewables to build both energy and economic security
STRATEGIC PATHWAYS FOR INDONESIA’S RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION: GEOPOLITICAL POSITIONING, CRITICAL MINERALS, AND NET-ZERO AMBITIONS
Renewables are now playing a major role in shaping global energy security and climate diplomacy, as well as economic resilience. The energy transition of the world is accelerating under the influence of market changes, competition for critical resources and rapid technology development, the transition is presenting both opportunities and challenges. Through the lens of legislation, future electricity generation mix and the role of critical minerals, this study undertakes a qualitative content analysis to assess Indonesia's strategic position in the renewable energy transition. Indonesia has a significant comparative advantage since the nation has a plentiful nickel, cobalt, and potentially lithium reserves and abundant renewable resources. By 2050, under the projected energy scenarios, the contribution of solar power generation will rise to more than 30%, while the use of coal will have fallen dramatically to 5-10%. But the country has structural problems, that are geopolitically vulnerable supply chains, expensive storage, regulatory hurdles, reliance on foreign technology. Faster downstream mineral processing, local technical capacity R&D, regional energy integration, and regional technical partnerships of this kind need to take place in order to avoid these pitfalls. Indonesia can establish itself as the regional leader in sustainable energy and critical mineral supply, seize on the energy transition to cost-effectively work towards net zero emissions by 2045 with early strategic action.
ADVANCING INDONESIA’S ROLE IN THE GLOBAL COPPER SUPPLY CHAIN: DOWNSTREAM INTEGRATION, PRODUCTION CAPACITY EXPANSION, AND ENERGY TRANSITION IMPLICATIONS
Copper remains to be the critical subject in the global economy, underpinning renewable energy technologies, electric vehicles, and broader carbon reduction strategies. Urbanisation, technological advances, and a transition towards lower carbon energy systems are the primary sources of the ongoing rise in demand for copper. By undertaking a qualitative content analysis of policy documents, capacity expansion plans and production data, this paper seeks to explore the role of Indonesia in the global copper market. Indonesia possesses substantial copper reserves and has advanced down streaming policy through the construction of the world’s largest single-line copper smelter in Gresik, East Java. Teaming up with the existing PT Smelting plant, the new facility includes mining and smelting operations and is responsible for around 800,000 tonnes of copper cathodes annually, capable of supporting the production of electric vehicles and renewable energy sources worldwide. When it comes to full production at the end of 2025, Indonesia will become one of the top five producers in the world with an annual production of 1.1 million tonnes. These developments are contributing to Indonesia’s status as an important player in the international energy transition and are also expanding the country’s engineering capacity.
DOWNSTREAMING AND REINDUSTRIALIZATION OF FOOD & ENERGY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGE CONTEMPORARY GEOPOLITICS
Indonesia’s target of being one of the top four world economies by 2045 is contingent on a strong industrialization plan to escape the middle-income trap. This heavy dependence on the export of raw commodities as well as the incursion of world-wide geo-political disturbances relating to the Russia–Ukraine war, the US–China trade war, and the Israel–Iran conflict accentuated the need for downstream processing and re-industrialization. This paper utilizes a qualitative content analysis of policy frameworks, governance model, and sectoral strategy in Indonesia’s mineral, agromaritime, and renewable energy. The results suggest that downstreaming has a high potential to increase export value, generate jobs and improve economic resilience. The mineral industry needs choosing a mode of strategic governance that balances economic prosperity, sovereignty, environmental protection and access to markets. In the agromaritime sector, palm oil, cocoa, coconut, and seaweed offer chances to climb the global value ladder, with bioenergy particularly via biomass constituting a central pole of the renewable energy shift. Higher education institutions such as universities play an important role in the rapid transformation of industry by promoting innovation, technology transfer and talent cultivation. The research concludes that a comprehensive plan that combines economic and social restructuring, technology-based investment and inclusive governance is the key to achieve sustained industrial growth and able to bring about the vision of Golden Indonesia 2045.
ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY POLICY IN A FRACTURED GLOBAL ECONOMY: A NEW STRUCTURAL ECONOMICS APPROACH FOR DEVELOPING NATIONS
With the rapid evolution of global energy transition, emerging economies are under increasing pressure to upgrade the industrial structures and assert strategic position in global value chains. Indonesia with rich natural resources approaches a crucial moment to prevent the mid-income trap and technological stagnation. This paper analyses the New Structural Economics (NSE) as a model for industrial transformation through the experiences of Indonesia in the development of downstream resource-based industries for technological transfer and regional cooperation in energy trade. Using qualitative content analysis of policy documents, expert statements, regional cooperation frameworks, and institutional arrangements, the paper analyses regulatory coherence, public participation, and inter-institutional coordination in the country. Empirical evidence, coupled with the nickel export ban and the involvement in the Asean Power Grid serve to show the potential and limitations of NSE principles into practice. Results underscore the significance of a standard body and regulation, public trust, the inclusiveness of human capital development, and sustainability assurance. Drawing from the analysis, the research suggests that an integrated, pro-active and participatory policy approach based on NSE may help Indonesia take a leading role in the regional energy transition and competitive industrial future.
Indonesia is aspiring to be high income by 2045, which required to escape the middle-income trap, which involves strategic transformation of economy. This paper examines the core driving forces behind the transformation, focusing on productivity improvement, diversifying capital formation, and downstream industrialization. Through the method of qualitative content analysis, the paper learns from best practices and successful transitions in countries, for example China and Malaysia. This paper emphasized priority to pursue enterprise productivity, strong and strategic sectoral development, and institutional coherence. The paper conclude that a robust base for economic growth in the longer term is sustainable downstreaming, export competitive, human capital development and policy consistency. The study articulates a “Make in Indonesia” strategy to drive industrialization that will enable Indonesia to shift towards advanced manufacturing and transform into a cost-effective manufacturing base so that the country does not become mired in a middle-income trap.